With another 2-1 week and an overall record of 25-33, the .500 record is dead and gone. I wanted to become the greatest betting mind this generation has ever seen, but I’ve turned into just another scrub with a blog.
I haven’t been able to sleep for days because of my failures. I just keep seeing spreads running across my mind day and night. With a lot of time to prepare for this conference championship weekend, I think I have the perfect golden ticket. The rules are a little different this week with only two games. I’ll be picking the two games and one very sexual prop bet that’s guaranteed to hit.
As always we will be using the very prestigious Bovada, they are not a sponsor not yet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ML) vs Green Bay Packers
This pick is the riskiest one of the two games. This game really could go either way, but at the end of the game I think the Bucs end up winning.
The Bucs have a really good two-headed monster with Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. They will be able to run all over the Packers, who on average give up 112 rushing yards per game this season.
The Bucs and Packers both have very good offenses, ranking 7th and 5th in total yards respectively. Both teams will have to rely on the run if the forecast for snow holds in Green Bay. The Packers already rely heavily on the run, they had the 8th most rushing yards in the league. But the Bucs were the best team against the run, only giving up 80 yards per game.
The Packers will be throwing the ball more this week, Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback, but the Bucs defense is legit. They had the fifth-most takeaways takeaways and the sixth-best defense all season. I think the Packers will struggle against the Bucs overall well-rounded team and lose on a field goal. Take the money line and never look back.
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
I think this game will be the better of the two this week. It should be high scoring, and could come down to the last few minutes. With the news that Pat Mahomes is cleared to play I have no doubt the Chiefs win. As I said on The Casuals podcast, I don’t think this 14th-ranked Bills defense can stop Mahomes.
Both teams are very good offensively, they rank 1st and 2nd in the league in total yards and will be fun to watch. However I think the Chiefs are going to win by a touchdown so the -3.5 doesn’t scare me. Bet all the monies on the Chiefs, they are going back to the super bowl.
Prop Bet: Leonard Fournette Any Time Touchdown (+135)
This one is very simple. Leonard Fournette has scored a touchdown in each of the Bucs two playoff victories. One came on the ground, the other came in the air. So he could score this one touchdown either way. They like using him in any situation, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities to score.
Fournette has also scored 5 touchdowns since week 15. He is a big part of this offense and will get all the goal line touches, which makes getting a touchdown relatively easy. I have no idea why Vegas has this prop at +135, it’s going to happen. I have no doubt he gets another touchdown this week against the Packers.
If you decide to throw $20 on this conference championship golden ticket, you’ll bring home $259 bucks. This is the biggest payout in golden ticket history, and it’s going to hit.