As a degenerate gambler, I figured that some people might be interested in my NFL win total bets. Am I being a little arrogant? I might be, but you all must be a degenerate gambler to click the link (thank you this really helps me keep my job).
I’ve come up with a list of three teams I believe will either hit the over or under on win totals. Now I feel like I need to put up some kind of disclaimer saying “don’t blame me if you lose your house, wife and kids.” So, don’t sue me. Like I said I’m a degenerate and anything is possible. But here are Ezzus’s top 3 can’t miss bets in 2020:
1 Los Angeles Chargers 7.5 Bet The Under
It’s still super weird to call them the Los Angeles Chargers. They should have just stayed in San Diego, but I’m not an NFL owner. The Chargers have been practicing playing with no fans for years but this will not give them any advantages for the 2020 pandemic season.
If you take the over, you essentially think the Bolts are going to win eight or more games. A three-game improvement from last year won’t happen with Tyrod Taylor and/or rookie Justin Herbert under center. The AFC West isn’t the easiest division to play in. With the Chiefs in the same division, it’s going to be hard to even beat them once, let alone twice. Denver won’t be a pushover this year. The defense is still really good and they added A.J Bouye from the Jaguars. Denver also surrounded Drew Lock with weapons like Melvin Gordon and Jerry Jeudy.
Back to the Chargers. They had a quiet offseason outside of drafting Herbert. The team signed Chris Harris Jr. to solidify one of the best secondaries in the league. It didn’t do much after that. Last year, they had an offensive line ranked 28th by PFF and only added Bryan Bulaga via free agency. Bulaga is a good offensive tackle but has dealt with injuries over his ten-year career. He only played a full 16 games twice. If Herbert starts, he needs that line to be solid. We know what happens when a QB starts taking hits. He’ll start to “see ghosts” like Sam Darnold against the Pats.
The Chargers are going to be bad this year. They don’t know if Herbert is even ready to be a starter with such a short offseason. He could very well sit this year behind Taylor, but Taylor is no stranger to losing his job to a rookie. If you want to take the over, be my guest. Just know your bookie will thank you when he comes to collect your money.
2 Arizona Cardinals 7.5 Bet The Over
The Cardinals got really good this year and the 7.5 win total is free money. A three-game swing is needed to hit the over but, unlike the Chargers, the Cards made very good moves this off season and built around Kyler Murray.
Let’s talk about that DeAndre Hopkins trade. The Texans have become the fantasy owner that everyone trade-rapes but actually believes they won the trade. They were taken advantage of yet again when the Cards only gave up David Johnson and a fourth for the four-time pro bowler. The Texans got fleeced so that Murray could fly. The best thing a team can do is get it’s young quarterback weapons. Arizona had weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk and still added Hopkins. This can only help Murray in his second year.
The draft was a key part of the offseason. Arizona addressed the defense when it selected Isaiah Simmons in the first round. Mel Kiper said, “when you talk about today’s game and what you need to be successful, you need versatility. Isaiah Simmons is a special talent.” Simmons will be a great add to a Cardinals defense that ranked 28th in the league.
The defensive line was a major concern for the Cards. This offseason, they signed NT Jordan Phillips,who had 10 sacks and 1 forced fumbles. They also signed DE Devon Kennard to fortify a D-line that already has Chandler Jones. Jones is coming off a 19-sack season where he forced 8 fumbles. The defense should be better with this improved defensive line.
In order for your young QBs to thrive, they need time in the pocket. The Cardinals saw a need to improve their 22nd-ranked offensive line (according to PFF) and did so with drafting OT Josh Jones. Offensive tackle was a need that they could have addressed at the 8th pick, but Simmons was too good to pass up. They waited and a first round talent fell to them in the second. Jones is a great addition to an O-line that looks to improve in 2020. Even if they can rank as the 15th best line, Murray can elevate this, as he is great with making plays with his legs.
The Cardinals do play in a tough division but they have improved and can easily go 3-3. After all, they played tough against the division in 2019. They may have gone 1-5 but they kept it close against the 49ers by losing by a combined 13 points. With an improved roster they should have closed the gap. Bet the over, you won’t be disappointed.
3 New England Patriots 9 Bet The Under
There is no way that the Pats win 10 games. We all know they lost Tom Brady to the Bucs. I might’ve thought about taking the over when Cam Newton signed with the team. But, I just can’t advise anyone to do so. When your bookie sees you took the over, he’ll be smiling all day knowing you’re going to pay his child support for a month.
They can’t possibly win 10 games with all the big time players sitting out due to the Rona. Before the Pats lost major players like Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung and Marcus Cannon to opt-outs, I could see them getting close to 10 games. Now, it’s a struggle to get them to eight games. The Pats have the toughest schedule in 2020.Iin order for them to win 10 games they need to play lights out. They do play in a very easy division, but that will not guarantee them easy wins.
The Pats are no longer the dominant team they once were. Last year with Tom Brady, it was apparent they weren’t the same team. The offense struggled and the defense kept them in games. They not only did they lose Brady, but also four starters on defense.
The number one defense in 2019 has already lost six starters to free agency or COVID-19 opt outs. Not a good sign of replicating what they did last year.
Are the Pats destined for the number one pick in the draft? I don’t think so. But to think they have what it takes to win upwards of 10 games is insane. Take advantage of Bill Belichick retooling his team and take some money out of your bookie’s baby mama’s hands. His kids might not like that but at least you secured the bag this NFL season.
BANNER: Alexander Jonesi//Flickr